2007 El Nino Superheating to New Record

2007 El Nino Superheating to New Record





    
 
January 2007  - Climate change scientists 
predict that 2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record 
globally, beating the current record set in 1998. 
Calling it a "startling forecast," scientists at the British 
Meteorological Office said Thursday that the potential for a 
record 2007 arises from an El Nino warming pattern already 
established in the Pacific. The El Nino is expected to persist 
through the first few months of 2007. 
An El Nino is a warm ocean current that typically appears 
around Christmas time off the coast of Peru and lasts for 
several months, but may persist into May or June. 
Map derived from satellite data shows the November 1997 El 
Nino warming pattern in the Pacific. (Photo courtesy ESA) 
The huge temperature shift in the Pacific Ocean spawns climate 
changes globally. El Nino climatic events include heavy rains 
and blustery storms as well as drought with associated 
wildfires. 
The lag between El Nino and the full global surface 
temperature response means that the warming effect of El Nino 
is extended, therefore it has a greater influence on global 
temperatures during the year, the Met office said. 
There is a 60 percent probability that 2007 will be as warm or 
warmer than the current warmest year, which was 1998. 
Temperatures are expected to rise +0.52 degrees Celsius, above 
the long-term 1961-1990 average, according to the Met office 
forecast. 
The global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C 
above the long-term average of 14.0 °C. 
Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting said, "This new 
information represents another warning that climate change is 
happening around the world. Our work in the climate change 
consultancy team applies Met Office research to help 
businesses mitigate against risk and adapt at a strategic 
level for success in the new environment." 
Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the 
University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global 
surface temperature for the coming year. 
Greenhouse gases stream from Germany's Heilbron coal-fired 
power plant. (Photo courtesy Sebastian Stumpf) 
The forecast takes into account contributing factors, such as 
solar effects, El Nino, and greenhouse gases concentrations. 
Over the previous seven years, the Met Office forecast of 
annual global temperature has proved accurate, with a mean 
forecast error size of just 0.06 °C. 
Thursday's forecast follows news that 2006 was the warmest 
year on record across the UK. 
Professor Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit at the 
University of East Anglia, said of 2006, "This year sees the 
highest average temperature recorded since the Central England 
Temperature series began in 1659, and the rise above the 
average is significantly higher than that for the two hottest 
years we have experienced." 
While some scientists still deny that human activities such as 
combustion of coal, oil and natural gas are responsible for 
global warming, others are finding more evidence of such 
links. 
Met Office climate scientist David Parker said, "2006 has been 
quite extraordinary in terms of the UK temperature, with 
several records being broken. The figures support recent 
research from Professor David Karoly of the University of 
Oklahoma and Dr. Peter Stott at the Met Office, which showed 
links between human behavior and the warming trend." 
New research published in September shows that rising sea 
surface temperatures in hurricane "breeding grounds" of the 
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are unlikely to be purely natural 
in origin. 
Using 22 different computer models of the climate system, 
atmospheric scientists from Lawrence Livermore National 
Laboratory in the United States and 10 other research centers, 
including the Climatic Research Unit, demonstrated that the 
warming of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans over the 
last century is directly linked to human activities. 
"In the real world, we're performing an uncontrolled 
experiment by burning fossil fuels and releasing greenhouse 
gases," said Benjamin Santer of Livermore's Program for 
Climate Modeling and Intercomparison, and lead author of the 
paper. 
Like these cars caught in rush hour in India, millions of 
vehicles around the world are contributing to global warming 
by burning petrol. (Photo courtesy UN) 
"The bottom line," said Santer, "is that natural processes 
alone simply cannot explain the observed sea surface 
temperature increases in these hurricane breeding grounds. The 
best explanation for these changes has to include a large 
human influence." 
The effects of global warming are likely to be extensive. 
Climate change will directly affect future food availability 
and compound the difficulties of feeding the world’s rapidly 
growing population, an official of the UN's Food and 
Agriculture Organization said at the opening of a UN climate 
change conference in November. 
In an address to the conference’s scientific and technical 
body, Castro Paulino Camarada, FAO representative in Kenya, 
stressed that greater attention must be given to the impact of 
climate change on agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and on 
mitigation and adaptation measures. 
Rising sea levels that could flood coastal communities, the 
spread of tropical diseases northward, and the extinction of 
ice dependent species are all projected as effects of climate 
change. 
At the same UN conference, Steve Sawyer, Greenpeace climate 
and energy policy advisor, said, "The worst impacts of climate 
change can be prevented, but only if governments act now. 
Future generations will not forgive us if we delay."