Economic situation in Zimbabwe

Economic situation in Zimbabwe





    
January 2007  - As the sun rises on 
the new year in Africa, there seems to be no solution ahead to 
a disastrous political and economic situation in Zimbabwe that 
only deteriorates faster by the day. 
The shameful state of the nation heaps dishonor on both the 
ruling ZANU PF party and the fractured opposition Movement for 
Democratic Change, MDC, analysts argue. 
With no respite in sight to the problems that have bedevilled 
the country for the past seven years, Zimbabweans were greeted 
in the early days of 2007 with the news that the official 
inflation rate had reached a new record high of 1,218 percent. 

These are Zimbabwe bearer cheques, so-called money that has an 
expiry date. (Photo courtesy Sokwanele) 
That is far ahead of the world’s second highest inflation rate 
- about 60 percent in Myanmar/Burma. However, economists 
believe officials are understating a true inflation rate of 
near 2,000 percent, with the International Monetary Fund 
predicting that Zimbabwe’s inflation will exceed 4,500 percent 
before the end of the year. 
Such runaway figures make it difficult for Zimbabweans to 
calculate their plight mathematically. But more than 80 
percent of the workforce are only too aware that they are 
without jobs, as businesses lay off staff at an accelerating 
pace or simply close. 
Meanwhile, the minority who are still in work have seen the 
real value of their incomes slashed by inflation as they watch 
prices of essential goods rise daily and as they grapple with 
rising transport costs, house rents, and medical and school 
fees. 
They watch the public infrastructure crumbling as they suffer 
under constant electricity and water cuts and the flooding of 
their streets and back yards from broken sewer pipes that no 
longer get repaired. 
The crisis, almost universally blamed on mismanagement by 
President Robert Mugabe's ZANU PF government, is fueling 
unprecedented political tensions in a country that for two 
decades after independence in 1980 was regarded as one of the 
most stable and prosperous in Africa. 
President Robert Mugabe has been in power in Zimbabwe since 
December 31, 1987. (Photo credit unknown) 
Public resentment is so great that most analysts now believe 
that unless Mugabe and his colleagues can address the 
country’s multiple problems they will face dangerous public 
unrest before the year is out. 
Among a raft of grievances, there is massive anger over 
Mugabe’s plan to postpone a presidential election scheduled 
for next year until 2010, by when Mugabe will be 86 years old 
and will have been in power for 30 years. 
The crisis has been made worse by a serious split in the 
Movement for Democratic Change, which until three years ago 
was seen as a real contender for power to lift Zimbabwe from 
the catastrophe that has engulfed it. The failure of the two 
shards of the splintered MDC to close ranks and come up with a 
united plan to alleviate the suffering of the majority of 
Zimbabweans has caused widespread disillusion. 
"The whole economic decline will reach rock bottom this year 
and the social upheaval that will result from it can bring 
down the present government if it is not contained," said John 
Robertson, the country’s leading independent economic 
consultant. 
People evicted from their homes by the government in 2005 
shelter in overcrowded conditions in a church yard in 
Bulawayo. The government has since evicted these people from 
the church and transported them to the rural areas. (Photo 
courtesy Sokwanele) 
Robertson spoke as the latest fuel shortage to grip Zimbabwe 
threatened to bring the entire southern African nation to a 
halt, with only a handful of garages in Harare and other 
centers still selling petrol and diesel to commercial 
transport companies and motorists. 
Queues for food have also lengthened in recent weeks as more 
retailers have run out of basic commodities whose prices have 
been frozen by the government in what it says is an attempt to 
protect consumers from the soaring cost of living. 
But manufacturers, hurt by the freeze on prices which they say 
are now below the cost of production, have scaled down 
production of controlled products, worsening the shortages 
that already characterized Zimbabwe’s economic crisis 
following mismanaged agrarian reforms. 
The price controls have further stoked a black market in 
almost all products. The cost of goods has risen by more than 
1,000 percent in the past year, making even basic foodstuffs 
unaffordable for most people. 
Some of Harare's homeless young men get together to rehearse a 
play at the Streets Ahead drop-in center. (Photo courtesy 
Kubtana) 
According to recent statistics, about 3.3 million Zimbabweans, 
more than a quarter of the population, need emergency food aid 
because of the land reform disaster and drought. 
That figure is expected to shoot up because the few farmers 
still attempting to grow foodstuffs have received inadequate 
supplies of seed, fertilizer and machine spares as a 
consequence of the collapse in foreign exchange earnings by 
manufacturers, miners and farmers. 
Political scientist Rangarirai Shereni predicted that the 
pressures building on the government because of the economic 
crisis would this year force it to re-engage with the 
international community and its opponents at home in order to 
avert a revolt by a population stretched to the limit. 
"The economic situation has reached depressing levels and all 
the symptoms of a total collapse are now evident,” said 
Shereni. "This situation is unsustainable in the new year 
because it will cause a social explosion that can undermine 
the government." 
But some analysts said Zimbabweans should not underestimate 
ZANU PF’s trump card - its iron control of the defence force 
and powerful legislation that it can wield to crush dissent. 
Laws such as the Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act, 
the Public Order and Security Act and the Access to 
Information and Protection of Privacy Act give the government 
near-dictatorial draconian powers that hamper free expression, 
freedom of the press and the right of assembly. 
The web of oppressive laws, some of them retained from the 
days of white minority rule, have been used to haul government 
critics before the courts. The government is also putting new 
"terrorism" and spying laws on the statute books. 
The three young boys rest from their labors on an arid farm in 
Gutu Province, southern Zimbabwe. (Photo courtesy ACT 
International) 
The country’s economic collapse is causing huge problems 
inside the ruling party. But the MDC is probably in even worse 
condition than the beleaguered ZANU PF. 
The MDC will now either sink or swim on its ability to 
convince the nation that its ideas for resolving the country’s 
political and economic problems are achievable. 
"In the past year, both MDC factions have managed to survive 
under repression, but the challenge they face now is how can 
they bring in a new dispensation to stem the economic crisis. 
It is high time they came together," said Robertson. 
He said the proposal by the MDC faction led by Morgan 
Tsvangirai of a transitional government that would pave the 
way for internationally supervised elections was a realistic 
compromise and could be the starting point for re-establishing 
some kind of stability from which to launch a more general 
recovery. He said the proposal might be welcomed by ZANU PF 
moderates, who know Mugabe has to go sooner or later. 
"The international community is not going to deal with 
Zimbabwe while Mugabe is still on board. Anyone else will do 
instead. The situation is desperate and every effort has to be 
made to avert a social upheaval this year," said Robertson. 
The first sign of that upheaval is a countrywide strike by 
doctors demanding salary increases of 8,000 percent to 
compensate for earnings eroded by hyperinflation. The strike 
has worsened the situation at public hospitals, whose 
administrators were already grappling with shortages of 
critical drugs, wholesale breakdowns of equipment because of 
lack of funds to buy spares, and the flight of doctors to 
countries such of the United Kingdom, Australia and South 
Africa for better pay and conditions. 
Harare's Parirenyatwa Hospital (Photo courtesy Footsteps) 
At Parirenyatwa, Zimbabwe’s biggest hospital in Harare, Rita 
Kamungeremu pointed to her 23 year old daughter, an AIDS 
patient lying motionless on the pavement near the hospital 
entrance, and said, “She can’t talk, eat or do anything, but 
there is no one attending to her.” 
It could almost have been an epitaph for Zimbabwe itself as 
2007 begins. 
{Published in cooperation with the Institute for War and Peace 
Reporting, IWPR. David Gorimbo is the pseudonym of an IWPR 
contributor in Zimbabwe.}