60 Percent of Polar Bears Extinct in 50 Years

60 Percent of Polar Bears Extinct in 50 Years



2007 September -   Future reduction of sea ice in 
the Arctic could result in a loss of two-thirds of the world's polar bear 
population within 50 years, according to a series of studies released by 
the U.S. Geological Survey, USGS. This conclusion and the facts behind it 
will inform the U.S. government's upcoming decision whether or not to list 
the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. 
During a six-month period of intensive analysis of both existing and new 
data, scientists from the USGS, other American and Canadian government 
agencies, universities and the private sector documented the direct 
relationship between the presence of Arctic sea ice and the survival and 
health of polar bears. 
Polar bears depend on sea ice as a platform to hunt seals, their primary 
food. But sea ice is decreasing throughout their Arctic range due to 
climate change, scientific studies have documented. Declines in polar bear 
habitat have been recorded throughout the Polar Basin over the past 20 
years of observations. 

Computer models used by the USGS team project a 42 percent loss of optimal 
polar bear habitat from the Polar Basin during summer, a vital hunting and 
breeding period, by mid-century. 
For two subpopulations of polar bears, in the Western Hudson Bay and 
Southern Beaufort Sea, the USGS related declines in the availability of 
sea ice to declines in population status. 
"Under a range of future sea ice scenarios for the 21st century and 
modeling approaches, the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation of polar 
bears is projected to decline severely by the end of the century, and in 
many scenarios, by mid-century," the USGS reports. 
To project future sea ice conditions, USGS scientists used 10 general 
circulation models that best approximated observed trends in sea-ice loss 
and could be expected to do the best job of simulating future conditions. 
Most pronounced polar bear habitat loss in the past decade has occurred in 
peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean - the Chukchi Sea and Barents and 
Greenland Seas. 
The scientists projected losses of polar bear habitat to be greatest for 
the Chukchi Sea and Barents Sea. 
The scientists say their conclusions are "conservative" because "even the 
best available models are believed to underestimate the actual decline in 
Arctic sea ice." 
"This team has done a tremendous job in furthering polar bear science 
through the use of long-term observational measurements on polar bears, 
their habitats, and many other factors integrated into a range of new and 
traditional models," said Mark Myers, director of the U.S. Geological 
Survey. 
The studies predict that almost two-thirds of the world's 19 polar bear 
populations will be extinct by mid-century and that three more populations 
of polar bears will probably be extinct within 75 years. 
"We now have official confirmation that the largest living land predator 
is going to go extinct in our lifetime," said Dr. Neil Hamilton, director 
of the WWF Arctic Programme from his headquarters in Norway. 
"The world is still discussing whether or not to take rapid action against 
climate change," said Hamilton. "Politicians are fiddling at the edges 
while the Arctic wilderness succumbs to global warming; but in the 
meantime, they are sending one of the world’s greatest species on its way 
to extinction." 

Last December, Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne announced that 
the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service was proposing to list the polar bear as 
a threatened species. Such a listing would mean that federal agencies 
would have to ensure that their activities, such as approval of oil and 
gas leases, do not threaten the survival of the species. 
In January 2008, following a one-year review period, the Service is 
expected to make a recommendation to Secretary Kempthorne on whether or 
not to list the polar bear as threatened. 
To help the Service arrive at that recommendation, Kempthorne requested 
USGS and the Service to "aggressively work with the public and the 
scientific community over the next year to broaden our understanding of 
what is happening with the species." 
"This information will be vital to the ultimate decision on whether the 
species should be listed," he said. 
On Friday, the USGS released nine administrative reports on the condition 
of polar bears and changes in the icy Arctic habitat to be open for public 
comment. These reports will be considered within the context of the Fish 
and Wildlife Service's one-year review. 
The USGS has improved knowledge on the status of three polar bear 
sub-populations, projected numbers of polar bears into the future in 
relation to sea ice, and integrated the information into a range-wide 
assessment of polar bear status under scenarios of future climate change. 
Andrew Wetzler, director of the Endangered Species Project at the Natural 
Resources Defense Council, says the USGS studies just confirm what 
conservationists have been saying for a long time. 
"Today’s study by the U.S. Geological Survey reaffirms scientific evidence 
that has been clear for years," said Wetzler. "Global warming threatens 
polar bears with extinction and they need to be protected under the 
Endangered Species Act." 
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will analyze these nine reports and 
other information provided by scientists, government agencies and the 
public to arrive at their decision, which is due in January.
 
To view all nine reports, visit: 
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar%5Fbears/ 

---