Are You Ready for the Heat?

Are You Ready for the Heat?



Aug. 2007 - Get ready for the heat. In the world's 
first near-term global warming forecast, British climate scientists say 
the planet's temperature will plateau for two years and then rise sharply 
through 2014. 
Using powerful computer models, scientists at the British meteorological 
service's Hadley Center predict that at least half of the years after 2009 
will exceed temperatures during 1998, the warmest year currently on 
record.

The year 2014 is likely to be 0.3°Celsius (.5°Fahrenheit) warmer than 
2004, the Met Office scientists predict. 
This forecast means that while it has taken a century for the global 
temperature to rise 0.8°C (1.44°F) it will take only 10 years for the 
planet to heat up half again as much. 
Published in the journal "Science," today, the forecast indicates that a 
natural cooling trend in the eastern and southern Pacific Ocean has kept 
global warming in check, but that trend is about to end. 
Scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre present the first decadal 
climate prediction model covering the decade from 2004 to 2014. Usually 
climate predictions cover the period of a century. 
Beyond 2014, the odds of breaking the temperature record increase still 
more, the scientists said. 
The new modeling system forecasts the Earth's surface temperature with 
improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions. 
Team leader Dr. Doug Smith said, "Observed relative cooling in the 
Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific over the last couple of years was 
correctly predicted by the new system, giving us greater confidence in the 
model's performance."

The new model incorporates the effects of sea surface temperatures as well 
as other factors such as human emissions of greenhouse gases, projected 
changes in the Sun's output and the effects of previous volcanic 
eruptions. 
By altering the global energy balance, such mechanisms force the climate 
to change. 
"Occurrences of El Nino, for example, have a significant effect on 
shorter-term predictions," said Smith, referring to the periodic warming 
of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean known as El Nino. 
"By including such internal variability," he said, "we have shown a 
substantial improvement in predictions of surface temperature," he said.
These predictions will be useful for businesses and policy-makers who will 
be able to respond to short-term climate change when making decisions 
today, said Smith. 
"The next decade is within many people's understanding and brings home the 
reality of a changing climate," he said.

Total global warming, on a decadal average, is 0.8°C (1.44°F) since 1900, 
according to an analysis released in February by the UN's 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, a group of thousands of 
scientists from around the world. 
While a temperature increase of a few degrees might not sound dramatic, it 
will have dramatic effects on our climate, according to Greenpeace climate 
campaigner Stephanie Tunmore, who said, "That's why is vital that action 
is taken now to reduce emissions and keep warming below 2°C to prevent 
catastrophic climate impacts." 
In a longer-term study of the effects of climate change on developing 
countries released in November, Hadley Centre scientists and others from 
around the world said the effects would be widespread and severe. 
"We project that by 2100, if significant mitigation does not take place, 
around half of the planet's land surface will be liable to drought," the 
scientists warned. "Some less developed countries are likely to be 
severely affected. Africa, South America and parts of South East Asia are 
likely to see worsening conditions." 
"Future climate change will affect water supplies and food production," 
they predict. "There will also be a wide range of other impacts, such as 
coastal flooding, increased heat related mortality, and loss of important 
ecosystems."

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