Drought for Southeast and Southwest

Drought for Southeast and Southwest



October 2007

 Above-average temperatures are 
expected for most of the country this winter as well as a continuation of 
drier than average conditions across parts of the drought-stricken 
Southwest and Southeast, meteorologists from the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, said today. 
NOAA announced the predictions at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook 
Conference in Washington, DC. 
"La Niña is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through 
the winter," said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting 
deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. 
La Niña conditions occur when ocean surface temperatures in the central 
and east-central equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. These 
changes affect tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds over the 
Pacific Ocean, which influence the patterns of rainfall and temperatures 
in many areas worldwide. 
"The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across 
large parts of the already parched South," Halpert said. "And while 
December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average 
winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of 
winter weather." 
NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said, "During the winter, usual La 
Niña impacts include drier and warmer-than-average conditions over the 
southern United States." 
Across the southern and central United States, the June-August 2007 summer 
season ended with a long-lasting heatwave that set more than 2,000 new 
daily high temperature records, according to scientists at NOAA's National 
Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. 
The much warmer-than-average conditions in the Southeast and throughout 
the West contributed to above average residential energy demand for the 
nation - about eight percent higher than what would have occurred under 
average climate conditions for the season, NOAA said. 
For the 2007-2008 U.S. winter, from December through February, NOAA 
seasonal forecasters predict:

  In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic,temperatures are expected to be 
  above average in response to the long-term warming trend. Snowfall for 
  the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to 
  anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance. 

  The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier-than-average due 
  to La Niña, while temperatures are expected to be above average. 

  In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation 
  should be above average. 

  The south-central Plains should see drier-than-average conditions and 
  warmer-than-average temperatures. Above-average temperatures are also 
  expected in the central Plains. The northern Plains has equal chances of 
  above-, near-, or below-average temperature and precipitation. 

  In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above-, near-, or 
  below-average temperatures. Precipitation should be above average in 
  much of the region due to La Niña. 

  Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La 
  Niña, and temperatures are likely to be above average. 

  Northern Alaska is expect to be milder–than-average, while the rest of 
  Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures 
  and precipitation. 

  In Hawaii, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above 
  average.
This winter is predicted to be warmer than the 30 year norm. For the 
country as a whole, NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December 
through February projects a 2.8 percent warmer winter than the 30 year 
norm, but a 1.3 percent cooler winter than last year. 
The U.S. winter outlook is produced by a team of scientists at the Climate 
Prediction Center in association with NOAA funded partners. 
Scientists base this forecast on long-term climate trends and a variety of 
forecast tools from statistical techniques to complex dynamical 
ocean-atmosphere coupled models and composites.

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