Major Hurricanes Forecasted in 2007

Major Hurricanes Forecasted in 2007



 
May 2007 - Sea surface temperatures in the 
Pacific Ocean are cooling while Atlantic temperatures are warming - a 
climate recipe for an Atlantic hurricane season more active than normal, 
according to government scientists. 
Just before the official hurricane season starts June 1, hurricane experts 
at the Climate Prediction Center operated by the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, said Tuesday there is a 75 percent 
chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal this year. 
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 
named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five 
could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said NOAA 
Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher. 

On August 28, 2005, one day before Hurricane Katrina made landfall, a NOAA 
employee photographed the storm's eyewall from a hurricane-hunter 
aircraft. 
Major Category 3 storms as rated on the Saffir-Simpson Scale bring 
sustained winds of 111 to 130 miles per hour. Category 4 storms bring 
winds of 131-155 mph, and Category 5 storms, the highest on the scale, 
pack winds greater than 155 mph. 
An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six 
becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. 
At a news conference Tuesday at Reagan National Airport, officials from 
NOAA, the Air Force Reserve and the U.S. Coast Guard, stood with Federal 
Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, Administrator David Paulison, and 
Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff to announce the updated 
forcast. The officials emphasized their commitment to federal agency 
teamwork as the hurricane season approaches. 

At the Reagan Airport, David Paulison, head of the Federal Emergency 
Management Agency, FEMA, urges preparedness for an active hurricane season 
ahead. 
Chertoff said the federal government is prepared to respond with a set of 
tools never before assembled - new communication equipment, more ready 
supplies in place, and the ability to more rapidly register and track 
potentially displaced storm victims. 
Climate patterns responsible for the expected 2007 hurricane activity 
continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal - the set of ocean and 
atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity, 
as well as warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic 
Ocean, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle in the Pacific. 
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an 
unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for 
Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering 
currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land. 

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the 
Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, when unusually warm ocean 
temperatures occur in the Equatorial Pacific. (Image courtesy NASA)
Historically, the next couple of months are a critical time period for the 
possible emergence of La Niña. 
"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will 
form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead 
seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. 
"The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in 
the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will 
likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher 
depending on how strong La Niña becomes." 
Bell says that even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated 
with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season." 

The NOAA forecast is in line with another closely watched forecast issued 
by the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team on April 3. 
The Colorado State team of Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach forecast that 17 
named storms would form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 
30, when the official hurricane season ends. 
Nine of the 17 storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those 
nine, five are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes above 
Category 3, the Colorado team said. 
"We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as 
active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons," said Klotzbach. "Based on our latest 
forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the 
U.S. coastline is 74 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 
percent. 
The Colorado team projects a 50 percent chance that a major hurricane will 
make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula. By 
comparison, the long-term average is 31 percent. 
They say there is a 49 percent chance that a major hurricane will make 
landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, 
Texas. The long-term average is 30 percent. 

Hurricane Wilma strikes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula October 21, 2005. Two 
days earlier Wilma had surged from a tropical storm to Category 5 
hurricane in record time. Winds around the eyewall of the storm were 
raging at 175 miles per hour. 
The Colorado team also predicted an above-average major hurricane landfall 
risk in the Caribbean this season. 
"With expectations for an active season, it is critically important that 
people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the Caribbean be 
prepared," said Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane Center director. 
"Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not when the storm is 
bearing down on you." 
Secretary Chertoff also stressed the importance of preparedness. "It is an 
individual responsibility," he said. 
Paulison encouraged citizens of storm prone areas to prepare a disaster 
kit. Residents should have a supply of non-perishable food and water to 
sustain their family for at least 72 hours, he said. The kits should also 
include first-aid supplies, prescription medicines and other important 
personal items. 
Residents should have an evacuation plan, and be prepared to deal with 
pets in case evacuation is necessary. 
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with 
peak activity occurring August through October. 
The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is an official forecast product of 
the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The Center will issue an updated 
seasonal forecast in August just before the historical peak of the season. 
   

       
      

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