Military Panel says Climate Change Threatens environment

Military Panel says Climate Change Threatens environment



   
April 2007 -   Global climate change 
presents a serious national security threat that could affect 
Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations, and 
heighten global tenvironment newsions, finds a study released today by a 
blue-ribbon panel of 11 of the most senior retired U.S. 
admirals and generals. 
Climate change, national security and energy dependence are a 
related set of global challenges that will add to tenvironment newsions 
even in stable regions of the world, found the panel, known as 
the Military Advisory Board. 
Retired U.S. Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni is a former 
Commander in Chief of U.S. Central Command. 
"We will pay for this one way or another," said retired Marine 
Corps General Anthony Zinni, former commander of U.S. forces 
in the Middle East. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas 
emissions today, and we'll have to take an economic hit of 
some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. 
And that will involve human lives. There will be a human 
toll." 
"The U.S. should commit to a stronger national and 
international role to help stabilize climate changes at levels 
that will avoid significant disruption to global security and 
stability," the Military Advisory Board recommends. 
The study, "National Security and the Threat of Climate 
Change," explores ways in which climate change acts as a 
"threat multiplier" in already fragile regions of the world, 
creating the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism. 
The CNA Corporation, a nonprofit research and analysis 
organization, brought together 11 retired four-star and 
three-star admirals and generals as a Military Advisory Board 
to provide advice, expertise and perspective on the impact of 
climate change on national security. CNA writers and 
researchers compiled the report under the board's direction 
and review. 
Members of the Military Advisory Board come from all branches 
of the armed services. The board includes a former Army chief 
of staff, commanders-in-chiefs of U.S. forces in global 
regions, a former shuttle astronaut and NASA administrator, 
and experts in planning, logistics, underwater operations and 
oceanography. One member also served as U.S. ambassador to 
China. 
"We found that climate instability will lead to instability in 
geopolitics and impact American military operations around the 
world," said retired General Gordon Sullivan, chairman of the 
Military Advisory Board and former Army chief of staff, in 
releasing the report today at a Washington news conference. 
Retired U.S. Army General Gordon Sullivan is a former Army 
chief of staff. 
"People are saying they want to be perfectly convinced about 
climate science projections," General Sullivan said. "But 
speaking as a soldier, we never have 100 percent certainty. If 
you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad 
is going to happen on the battlefield." 
Military Advisory Board members said they remain optimistic 
that climate change challenges can be managed to reduce future 
risks. 
As part of its five specific recommendations for action, the 
Board said "the path to mitigating the worst security 
consequences of climate change involves reducing global 
greenhouse gas emissions." 
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency today released the 
national greenhouse gas inventory, which finds that overall 
emissions during 2005 increased by 0.8 percent from the 
previous year. Overall emissions have grown by 16 percent from 
1990 to 2005. 
Retired Navy Vice Admiral Richard Truly, a shuttle astronaut 
and former NASA administrator, said, "Unlike the challenges 
that we are used to dealing with, these will come upon us 
extremely slowly, but come they will, and they will be 
grinding and inexorable." Retired Navy Vice Admiral Richard
 Truly was NASA administrator 
from 1989 to 1992 and then served as director of the National 
Renewable Energy Laboratory. 
Truly also notes that "maybe more challenging is that climate 
change will affect every nation, and all simultaneously. This 
is why we need to study this issue now, so that we'll be 
prepared and not overwhelmed by the required scope of our 
response when the time comes." 
The Military Advisory Board report recognizes that unabated 
climate change could bring an increased frequency of extreme 
storms, additional drought and flooding, rising sea levels, 
melting glaciers and the rapid spread of life-threatening 
disease. 
These projected effects are usually viewed as environmental 
challenges, but now the Military Advisory Board has looked at 
them from the perspective of national security assessments. 
They are serious risk factors for massive migrations, 
increased border tenvironment newsions, greater demands for rescue and 
evacuation efforts, and conflicts over essential resources, 
including food and water, the board said, saying such 
developments could lead to direct U.S. military involvement. 
Retired Admiral Joseph Lopez is one of two flag officers in 
the history of the U.S. Navy who have achieved four-star rank 
after direct commission from enlisted service. 
"Climate change can provide the conditions that will extend 
the war on terror," said retired Admiral T. Joseph Lopez, 
former commander-in-chief, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and of 
Allied Forces, Southern Europe. 
"Rising ocean water levels, droughts, violent weather, ruined 
national economies-those are the kinds of stresses we'll see 
more of under climate change," he said. 
"In the long term, we want to address the underlying 
conditions that terrorists seek to exploit," Admiral Lopez 
said. "But climate change will prolong those conditions. It 
makes them worse." 
The report describes national security implications of climate 
change in various regions of the world. 
Europe: Tenvironment newsions may rise as immigration from Africa and the 
Middle East- exacerbated by climate change-places additional 
social and economic pressures on countries. Some of America's 
strongest allies may be distracted as they struggle to protect 
their own borders. Such an inward focus may make it more 
difficult to build international coalitions, or engage in 
exercises to environment newsure readiness. 
"Europe will be focused on its own borders," retired Admiral 
Donald L. Pilling, vice chief of naval operations, said in the 
report. "There is potential for fracturing some very strong 
alliances based on migrations and the lack of control over 
borders." 
Africa: The report focuses on the ways in which climate change 
can contribute to shortages of food, drinking water and 
farmland, adding strain in a region that is already the source 
of 30 percent of the world's refugees. It states: "Such 
changes will add significantly to existing tenvironment newsions and can 
facilitate weakened governance, economic collapses, massive 
human migrations, and potential conflicts." 
"We ought to care about Africa because we're a good country," 
retired Air Force General Charles "Chuck" Wald said in the 
report. As deputy commander of the United States European 
Command, he was also responsible for U.S. forces in Africa. 
Retired Air Force General Charles "Chuck" Wald is a command 
pilot with more than 430 combat hours over Vietnam, Cambodia, 
Laos, Iraq and Bosnia. 
"We have a humanitarian character; it's one of our great 
strengths, and we shouldn't deny it. Some may be tempted to 
avert their eyes, but I would hope we instead see the very 
real human suffering taking place there. We should be moved by 
it, challenged by it." 
"Even in the context of security discussions, I think these 
reasons matter, because part of our security depends on 
remaining true to our values," General Wald said. 
"We import more oil from Africa than the Middle East - 
probably a shock to a lot of people - and that share will 
grow... we'll be drawn into the politics of Africa, to a much 
greater extent," he said. 
Middle East: Noting this is the region of the world in which 
the U.S. is most engaged militarily, the report states that 
"water resources are a critical issue... and will become even 
more critical... Competition for increasingly scarce resources 
may exacerbate the level of conflict." 
"The existing situation [in the Middle East] makes this place 
more susceptible to problems," said General Zinni, the former 
CENTCOM commander. "Even small changes may have a greater 
impact here than they may have elsewhere. You already have 
great tenvironment newsion over water. These are cultures often built 
around a single source of water. 
"It's not hard to make the connection between climate change 
and instability, or climate change and terrorism," General 
Zinni said. 
Latin America: The report states, "Rising sea levels will 
threaten all coastal nations. Caribbean nations are especially 
vulnerable in this regard, with the combination of rising sea 
levels and increased hurricane activity potentially 
devastating to some island nations... and a likely increase in 
immigration from neighbor states." In addition the report 
finds that "[l]oss of glaciers will strain water supply in 
several areas, particularly Peru and Venezuela." 
Asia: The report finds that many factors may affect the 
continent. Potential sea level rise would have a severe impact 
with almost 40 percent of Asia's population of nearly 4 
billion living within forty-five miles of coastlines. In 
addition, the reduced availability of farmland and drinking 
water and the increased spread of infectious disease would 
destabilize the region. 
One Military Advisory Board member, retired Navy Admiral 
Joseph Prueher, views Asia from two perspectives, having been 
commander of all U.S. forces in the Pacific and later U.S. 
ambassador to China. He suggested, as the full report does, 
that the U.S. should work with key international partners, 
including China, one of the leading emitters of atmospheric 
carbon. 
Retired Navy Admiral Joseph Prueher was U.S. ambassador to 
China from November 1999 to May 2001. 
"On the issue of carbon emissions, it doesn't help us to solve 
our problem if China doesn't solve theirs. And that means we 
need to engage with them on many fronts," Admiral Prueher said 
in the report. "Not talking to the Chinese is not an option." 
The Military Advisory Board found that climate change impacts 
may affect U.S. military bases, requiring the Pentagon to 
prepare differently for future national security scenarios. 
Rising sea levels could threaten coastal bases at home and 
abroad, and increasing storm activity could deter the 
military's ability to perform routine maintenance or carry out 
regular exercises. 
Changing ocean salinity could require changes in sonar and 
submarine systems. 
Drought conditions could require new logistical plans and 
equipment for moving water to U.S. troops in war zones. 
The need for new kinds of humanitarian operations could 
necessitate new training to address these different missions. 
Climate change may have differing impacts on the four branches 
of the armed services. The former head of the U.S. Army 
Materiel Command, retired General Paul Kern, said changes may 
make it more difficult for the Army to handle basic supplies. 
"Military planning should view climate change as a threat to 
the balance of energy access, water supplies, and a healthy 
environment, and it should require a response," General Kern 
said in the report. "Responding after the fact with troops - 
after a crisis occurs - is one kind of response. Working to 
delay these changes - to accommodate a balance among these 
staples - is, of course, another way." 
General Wald raised additional concerns. "Will the Air Force 
be expected to move larger quantities of supplies, including 
fuel, food or drinking water? Will they be expected to move 
larger numbers of people, perhaps in evacuations? Will we have 
the right kind of equipment, personnel and training to handle 
new missions, without diminishing our conventional military 
capacity? That's barely a start, but it gives you a sense of 
the scale of potential change." 
The report notes that changes in the salinity of oceans, if 
glaciers melt and water temperatures change, could affect 
submarine equipment such as sonar. There may also be a greater 
need for civilian evacuations. Marines and Special Operations 
forces are trained and equipped now primarily for small to 
medium sized rescue operations. 
Admiral Pilling said that if climate change increases the 
frequency or intenvironment newsity of hurricanes, there could be a 
destabilizing effect on the Navy, especially in the 
Southeastern United States. 
The report cites the Arctic as a region of particular concern 
for military planners. "If the warming we've seen in the high 
Arctic continues, then there is a possibility of a new sea 
route, a Northwest Passage if you will," retired Vice Admiral 
Paul G. Gaffney II, former chief of naval research and the 
former president of National Defense, said about 
the study. 
Retired Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney II now is the president 
of Monmouth University in New Jersey. 
"Will we be ready for both that opportunity and a new sea lane 
to defend? Will we have the right kinds of ships? Will we be 
ready for the acoustic surveillance challenges in a changed 
environment? Will it inspire a mission that requires greater 
air support from the Navy or the Air Force? What kinds of new 
basing arrangements will be necessary? These are questions 
security planners should be contemplating," said Admiral 
Gaffney. 
The Military Advisory Board chose not to engage in debate over 
climate science but did note that current levels of 
atmospheric carbon are already at historically high levels and 
are increasing. 
"This rise presents the prospect of significant climate 
change," the board said in its letter transmitting the report 
to the American public. "And while uncertainty exists and 
debate continues regarding the science and future extent of 
projected climate changes, the trends are clear. The nature 
and pace of climate changes being observed today and the 
consequences projected by the consenvironment newsus scientific opinion are 
grave and pose equally grave implications for our national 
security." 
The Military Advisory Board called on the Defense Department 
to find ways to limit the extent of climate change, in part by 
controlling its own greenhouse gas emissions and fuel use 
while simultaneously increasing combat capabilities for 
American forces worldwide. 
"Our national security is inextricably linked to our country's 
energy security," said retired Navy Admiral Frank "Skip" 
Bowman, who was director of the Naval Nuclear Propulsion 
program. 
"The military should be interested in fuel economy on the 
battlefield," retired Lieutenant General Lawrence P. Farrell 
Jr., who was deputy Air Force chief of staff for plans and 
programs, said in the report. "It's a readiness issue. If you 
can move your men and materiel more quickly, if you have less 
tonnage but the same level of protection and firepower, you're 
more efficient on the battlefield. That's a life and death 
issue." 
The Military Advisory Board recommends:
  The national security consequences of climate change should 
  be fully integrated into national security and national 
  defense strategies.   The U.S. should commit
 to a stronger national and 
  international role to help stabilize climate changes at 
  levels that will avoid significant disruption to global 
  security and stability.   The U.S. should commit to global
 partnerships that help less 
  developed nations build the capacity and resiliency to 
  better manage climate impacts.   The Department of 
Defenvse should enhance its operational 
  capability by accelerating the adoption of improved business 
  processes and innovative technologies that result in 
  improved U.S. combat power through energy efficiency.
   DoD should conduct an assessment of the impact on U.S. 
  military installations worldwide of rising sea levels, 
  extreme weather events, and other possible climate change 
  impacts over the next 30 to 40 years. 
    The full report, "National Security and the Threat of 
    Climate Change," is available at: 
    http://SecurityAndClimate.cna.org. 

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