Tajikistan Dam could break

Tajikistan Dam could break



May 2007 - The natural dam holding Lake 
Sarez in southeastern Tajikistan could break in the event of a major 
landslide, putting thousands of homes in the region at risk of 
devastation. 
Experts say that in addition to introducing an early warning system and 
making local residents aware of the problem, serious research should be 
done to find a long-term solution to the problem. This should involve all 
four of the countries that would be affected if the lake broke its banks. 
Last week, people living in the Bartang valley of the southeastern 
Badakhshan region received training in emergency procedures for the 
eventuality that the dam ruptures, the Aziya Plus news agency reported. 
The training was part of a World Bank funded project aimed at reducing the 
risk posed by the lake. 
Lake Sarez lake, lying at an altitude of over 3,000 meters (9,842 feet), 
was formed in 1911 when an earthquake caused a huge landslide which 
blocked the River Murghab. 
Lake Sarez, deep in the Pamir mountains of Tajikistan, was created 90 
years ago when a strong earthquake triggered a massive landslide that 
became a huge dam along the Murghob River, now called the Usoi Dam. (Photo 
courtesy NASA)
It is thought that another strong earthquake could break this natural dam 
and set off a huge wave of water that would swamp towns and villages in 
Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, affecting an area 
where around six million people live. 
Leonid Papyrin, an expert with the Moscow Centre for Regional Geophysical 
and Geo-ecological Studies, says the dam will inevitably break at some 
point in the future, but adds that "it is impossible to predict when it 
will happen – tomorrow or in a hundred years." 
Papyrin said there is virtually no current research despite the need for 
extensive studies of seismic activity in the region. 
However, Gulsara Pulatova, a United Nations senior advisor on disaster 
risk reduction, says recent studies show the natural plug is much more 
stable than anticipated. 
"It turns out the risk is not as high as we imagined. Many people 
exaggerate it, but it’s just panic-mongering," she said. 
But Pulatova accepts the need for scientists to continue studying the dam, 
as new leaks keep appearing and earthquakes could cause another landslide. 

Sobit Negmatullaev, a seismologist currently working as an adviser on the 
World Bank’s Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project, says that an 
international conference will be held in Dushanbe on May 22-23 to discuss 
a long-term solution that would entirely eliminate the danger of the lake 
bursting. 
Sixty-one kilometers long, Lake Sarez lies in an earthquake-prone area. 

"There are a lot of options - some water can be drawn off the lake, or 
drained via tunnels, [the water flow] can be regulated, and there are a 
lot of other ways to make Sarez safe," said Negmatullaev. 
Uktam Murtazaev, acting director of the Tajik branch of the Scientific and 
Information Centre of the Interstate Coordination Water Commission, says 
the lake will need significant investment and appropriate infrastructure 
for these measures to work. 
Protection measures should be economically viable, he said. 
The lake’s waters could be exported as drinking water, used to irrigate 
three million hectares (7.4 million acres) of land in neighboring 
Afghanistan, and directed into new reservoirs that would power 
yet-to-be-built hydroelectric stations on the River Panj, the upper part 
of the Amu Darya. 
Aminjon Huseinov, who is in charge of matters relating to Lake Sarez at 
the Ministry for Emergency Situations, agrees that huge investment is 
needed to protect the lake, but says the Tajik government does not have 
the budget to do this. 
"A solution to this problem requires joint efforts from all the Central 
Asian states, Afghanistan and the international humanitarian organisations 
operating in our region," he said. 
   

       
      

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